April Fools — Overcome Unexpected
Coming Around Again!
If ten years ago, on April 1, 2016, you had read any of these predictions, you would have considered them April Fools attempts.
The Dow Jones Average will soar by over 15,000 points with Presidents at/near 80 years old!
The USA will kidnap a South American leader and attempt to destroy by missiles a mid-east country!
Aaron Rogers will be considering serving as starting quarterback AGAIN for the Pittsburgh Steelers!
Do NOT get frozen by what happens unexpectedly. We need to stay light on our feet and gain “dry powder” to respond to opportunities others miss from fear.
WHERE ARE YOU? Start with a realistic diagnosis of where you will want to stand in our ever-evolving brave new world, versus the one for which you may still long to be. None of the above is the end of the world. We in the USA, though, may be going from “happy days are here again” excessive to more of a “working on a railroad” counting-your-pennies style of living.
WHAT IS LEFT? As in MASH, we need a quick application of triage, as not everything will survive. Some churches close, grocery stores become virtual, and driverless cars may become the norm. What survives (e.g., the paid-off car) and what is let go (e.g., the vacation trip of a lifetime to Ireland) are best determined, though, in advance of crisis.
RECOVERY! Your energy and resources are best used if applied to ONE area where you have a “survive to thrive” chance over the next 18–36 months. Ideally you build on what you already know and “blossom beyond” as the bills are being paid on time.
PREDICTIONS
RETAIL. It is difficult to quickly turn around a large retail center (e.g., think an aircraft carrier vs. a PT boat). The volume of retail sales online, as a percentage of all sales, will continue to grow. Most markets, though, will have (at least) one mall survivor (as some buyers need/like to touch what they are buying). Retail sales will drop when the economy drops unexpectedly (e.g., as gasoline and food spike this month).
OFFICE. Smart leaders will NOT bring those who remain working from home back into the office. It is easier to fire folks you don’t see every day.
SELF STORAGE. A roller coaster economy does not crater mini storage.
MEDICAL. Concierge physician practices will grow, as person who can afford better care will still have the money to pay for better care.
INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE. Won’t feel a short-term downturn.
VETERINARIAN PRACTICES. While they may lose most animal food sales to online services, they will remain attractive to Wall Street. Why? Vets get paid when services are supplied (versus with insurance reimbursement for human) and sick pets still were brought in for care.
BOTTOM LINE.
Hold tight to your regular income if it is coming from a source which will not be negatively impacted by the roller coaster economy. Start a second gig part-time, which you can ramp up if you get let go OR your employer goes under.
Having walked this walk now several times in my career, allow me to reassure you that there is always an economic path to get back home.